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A cold front brings gusty showers to Tas, Vic, coastal SA & southeast NSW. Showers and storms over inland NSW and WA's western interior in unstable airmasses. Showers over QLD's east coast and the NT's eastern Top End in onshore winds around high pressure.
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Today, 4:29AM UTC
Decent rain en route to bone-dry southwest WA
Welcome rain is coming to the parched southwest WA this week, possibly including Perth and Bunbury which are both having their driest 7 months on record. Many locations in the southwest will see the driest April on record, with much of this rainfall likely to contribute to May’s totals, as a cold front approaches the state on later in the week. Rainfall and thunderstorms are forecast in the Gascoyne region on Monday afternoon, before shifting to the Central West, Lower West and Central Wheatbelt regions on Tuesday. The heaviest falls are likely across the south and southwest of the state between Wednesday and Saturday. Perth could also see several days with rainfall registered in the gauge from Tuesday, which will be welcome after the city experienced the driest six-month period between October and March. The maps below shows two computer models forecast rainfall, with widespread falls between 5 to 10mm evident across the west and southwest between Monday and Sunday, with isolated falls of between 30 and 60mm. Images: Accumulated 6-day rainfall leading up to 2am AWST on Sunday, May 5, according to ECMWF (top) and ACCESS-G (bottom). There is still some disagreement over how much rain will fall. Unfortunately, it seems likely that it will only be about a quarter of the rainfall we need. The map below shows that parts of the region have endured a 150 to 300mm deficit during the last seven months. Image: WA rainfall anomaly between 1 September 2023 and March 31 2024, source: Bureau of Meteorology. The lack of rainfall during this period has led to the soil moisture being the lowest one percent in the southwest in the deep layer, indicating that the dryness has penetrated below the surface. The map below shows the deep layer soil moisture in southwestern WA, which represents the percentage of available water content between 1 m and 6 m in the soil profile. Image: Deep layer soil moisture in southwest WA as of Thursday, April 25, source: Bureau of Meteorology. Though this rainfall is unlikely to be drought-breaking, it certainly will be useful over the coming week. We will be keeping an eye on the rainfall and thunderstorms that form this week in WA and update you as the event. unfolds.
Today, 2:32AM UTC
Wet week ahead for eastern and southwestern Australia
Rain and thunderstorms will soak parts of eastern and southwestern Australia this week, bringing drought relief in WA and a risk of flooding in NSW. A series of upper-level troughs and low pressure systems will trigger multiple days of rain and thunderstorms over Australia this week. In WA, showers and thunderstorms will develop over the state’s western districts on Tuesday, near a deepening low pressure trough. This wet and stormy weather will then spread further south and east between Tuesday and Thursday. Showers should contract to the south and southwest of WA from Friday as a low pressure system develops to the state’s south. Accumulated rainfall totals of 5 to 20 mm are likely over a broad area of the Southwest Land Division in WA this week. Some areas of the far southwest could see more than 50 mm by the end of the week. Image: Forecast accumulated rain during the seven days ending on Sunday, May 5, according to the ECMWF-HRES model. This week’s rain will be falling over parts of WA that have just endured their driest seven-month period on record, including Perth and Bunbury. While there won’t be enough rain to completely eradicate the rainfall deficits from the past seven months, the wet weather will be a welcome change for the parched landscape. Meanwhile, a significant week of rainfall and flooding lies ahead for some areas of eastern Australia. A weak cold front and associated low pressure trough will sweep across southeastern Australia on Monday and Tuesday, causing a cool southerly change and some showers over several states. From Wednesday, a large and slow-moving high pressure ridge will become established over the Tasman Sea, causing a steady flow of rain-bearing easterly winds to become established over eastern Australia for the rest of the week. This constant feed of moisture will interact with an upper-level cut-off low pressure system in the second half of the week, causing widespread rain over NSW and southern Qld. There is some uncertainty regarding the position of the upper-level low and the resulting rainfall towards the end of the week. However, most forecast models agree that heavy rain will affect parts of eastern NSW, with potential for substantial falls in southern Qld, and in western and central NSW as well. The maps below show forecasts from three different computer models for the next seven days combined. Image: Forecast accumulated rain during the seven days ending on Sunday, May 5, according to the ECMWF-HRES (top), GFS (middle) and ACCESS-G (bottom) models. Weather patterns like this can cause several hundred millimetres of rain along the NSW coast and adjacent ranges, particularly when low pressure systems or troughs form near the coast. Daily rainfall forecasts for individual locations may jump around this week as new weather model guidance becomes available. Flood and severe weather warnings should also be issued later in the week as we get closer to the heaviest rain days.
28 Apr 2024, 2:14AM UTC
A quick look at our water storages
Given the largely clear skies across the country today, it’s a good opportunity to take a look at the water storages of Australia’s major cities. While rainfall is obviously a major contributor to the level of major dams, it is not the only factor. Water usage, infrastructure developments and upgrades, and controlled releases also need to be factored in when looking at this data. Let's start with a national overview. The map below shows the percentage of average rainfall for the year to date. Greens and above indicate above average rainfall while browns and reds indicate below average rainfall. Year to date rainfall percentages (source: BoM) The huge areas of above average rainfall across NT and eastern WA are notable; however, these areas don’t provide our major sources of water. For that we need to look closer to the capitals. The eastern capitals Brisbane, Sydney and Melbourne have all had slightly above average rainfall so far this year while Adelaide and Perth have had below average rainfall. Perth has only had 9.6mm of rainfall in 2024 following on from its driest six-month period on record (Oct – Mar). Given that extreme stretch of dry weather, it’s no surprise that Perth’s total dam capacity is at 40.4%, down from 50% at the same time last year. Perth Metro supply monthly dam volume comparison (source: WAter corporation) According to WAter Corporation data, this is the lowest dams have been since 2018 but still well above 2017. Given the slow decline of average rainfall over southwest WA, Perth has become more reliant on groundwater and desalinization which you can read about here. Similarly for Adelaide, SA Water is reporting that the total reservoir level is at 47%, down from 59% at the same time last year. It’s a different story in the eastern states, however. According to latest information from Melbourne Water, Melbourne’s catchments are at a very healthy 89.3% full, only slightly below 90.3% this time last year. After a string of La Niña summers and a wet El Niño, Melbourne’s catchments remain at their highest levels since the mid-90s. In Sydney, after the 200mm soaking earlier in the month and on the back of a few wet summers, it’s no surprise that Water NSW is reporting that dam levels are nearly full at 97%. Finally for Brisbane, after falling to 65.7% at the end of 2023 the soaking rains of the summer have sent catchments soaring to 84.0% full, according to SEQ Water data. The peak in early 2022 coincided with the Brisbane floods where the water level jumped from 70% to nearly full in a matter of days. Brisbane historical dam storage (source: SEQ Water) If you would like to know more about the water storage in your city, try some of these links. WAter Corporation (WA), SA Water, Melbourne Water, Water NSW and SEQ Water (QLD). Story image: Wivenhoe Dam (source: SEQ Water)
Weather in Business
23 Apr 2024, 12:07AM UTC
Wind returning to southeastern Australia
After a prolonged period of light winds, a surge of powerful winds and cool air will push through southeastern Australia during the next 48 hours. As we wrote about last week the National Electricity Market (NEM) saw very low wind power generation during the seven days leading up to Thursday, April 18, with the daily wind generation having been under 41 GWh/day for this period. Wind power has improved slightly during the past week, with wind power increasing for a few days over last weekend. The chart below shows that the winds across the NEM have already increased in response to a cold front approaching SA and Vic on Tuesday. The increase in wind power is associated with a cold front sweeping across southeastern Australia, after a stubborn high-pressure system forced many cold fronts south for over a week. The map below shows the cold front marching across the Bight, approaching SA on Tuesday morning. You can also see a broad area of speckled cloud in the Bight, which is a tell-tale sign that a large mass of cold polar air has broken away from the Antarctic region and is venturing into the relatively warm mid-latitudes. Image: Himawari-9 satellite image at 9:30am AEST on Tuesday, April 23. Northwesterly winds will continue to strengthen ahead of the cold front on Tuesday in SA and Vic before a strong southwesterly change hits Adelaide on Tuesday afternoon and Melbourne in the evening. The images below show the wind gust forecast for Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon. Image: Instantaneous wind gust forecast at 1pm AEST on Tuesday (top) (bottom)and Wednesday, April 23 and 24, according to ECMWF While most of this wind should hit the wind power ‘sweet spot’, cut outs could occur at southeastern Vic and southern NSW wind farms late Tuesday into Wednesday. Generally, cut outs occur when wind speeds exceed 90km/h (25 m/s), which is when the wind turbines are turned off to prevent damage. In the image above you can see the front and associated southerly change moving up the NSW coast on Wednesday, hitting Sydney on Wednesday afternoon. Winds will then become light later this week as another high-pressure system moves into the Bight. Cool change coming Ahead of this change, much of southeastern Australia has experienced pleasant autumnal weather, with Sydney’s temperature for the next two days reaching 27°C. However, there will be a large temperature contrast ahead and behind the cold front in the next few days. The image below shows forecast air temperatures around 1.5km above sea level on Wednesday morning, showing the cool airmass moving over parts of SA, VIC, Tas. Behind the cold front strong southwesterly winds will cause temperatures to plummet to around 2-3°C below average across southern Australia; Melbourne and Adelaide's temperature dropping to around 16-18°C for several days following the front. Hobart’s temperature will drop from 22°C on Tuesday to 15°C on Wednesday. Sydney’s temperature will go from 5°C above average on Wednesday to average on Thursday. The coolest air will move over Tas, bringing snow to the alpine region there. Looking ahead, temperatures will recover later this week ahead of another cold front and burst of wind power early next week.
18 Apr 2024, 3:20AM UTC
Generation gone with the wind
A weeklong stretch of low wind power was broken on Wednesday evening, as a weak cold front marched across southern Australia. The chart below shows that the National Electricity Market (NEM) has endured a weeklong stretch of low wind generation, with wind power providing around 6% of the NEM’s electricity, down from last year’s average of 13.1% (Mon, April 15 to Wed, April 17). The daily wind generation has been under 41 GWh/day for the last seven days leading up to Thursday, April 18. The calmest winds occurred on Sunday, April 14 with only 24 GWh/day produced or 4.6% of grid demand. To put this in perspective, the average daily wind generation during the last year up to Wednesday, April 17, 2024, was 71 GWh/day, according to data from the open NEM. This prolonged period of low wind was caused by blocking high pressure systems sitting over southern Australia, forcing cold fronts or strong wind further south. The image below shows the Mean Sea Level Pressure chart on the calmest day, Sunday, April 14, with high pressure stubbornly sitting over the southern half of the country. Image: Mean Sea Level Pressure Analysis at 4am AEST on Sunday, April 14. Source: Bureau of Meteorology. As we mentioned earlier today, a positive Southern Annular Mode (SAM) has led to consistent high pressure systems positioned over latitudes well south of Australia during the first three months of the year and during this week. This has kept cold fronts south of the mainland, and even south of Tasmania. READ MORE: WHAT IS THE SAM? The period of light winds ended abruptly on Wednesday evening, with WattClarity reporting that wind production peaking above 3,000 MW at 9:10pm AEST. The increased wind power on Wednesday night, was caused by a couple of factors; A weak cold front swept across the southeast on Wednesday, bringing stronger winds. A very shallow temperature inversion formed in the early evening protecting the surface from the stronger winds, but the wind turbine hub-height (150 metres above the ground) winds remained strong at around 28-38 km/h in SA. Temperature inversions form at night when the ground cools quicker than the air above it, meaning that the temperature increases with height for a thin layer of the atmosphere. During autumn, the temperature inversions are commonly shallow meaning that while the wind could be weak at the surface, the hub heights could continue to experience strong winds. A similar phenomenon could happen again tonight across southern Australia, with another cold front passing across the south. Looking ahead, light winds are expected to continue from Friday as a stubborn high-pressure system builds over the Bight until early to mid-next week.
